International highlights
The Dollar boosted by inflation data
The EUR/USD pair depreciated by -0.13%, moving from 1.1617 to 1.1599 by the end of the week. Macroeconomic releases favorable to the United States supported the Dollar this week. Indeed, the annual CPI for August came in stable at 3.4%, confirming the persistence of inflationary pressures. Core CPI, meanwhile, rose slightly by +0.1% in August, coming in at 0.3%. In addition, weekly unemployment claims fell by -1K, settling at 206K. For reference, the ECB raised its deposit facility rate by +25 BPS this week, at its September monetary policy meeting. Market attention is now turning to the Fed, whose September FOMC meeting is also expected to result in a +25 BPS hike.
MAD evolution and foreign exchange market liquidity indicators
The Dirham was penalized by an unfavorable double effect
USD/MAD appreciated by +0.41%, reaching 9.38 by the end of the week. This was driven by a double effect favorable to the Dollar. On one hand, a basket effect of +0.10%, linked to the Dollar's appreciation on the international market this week. On the other hand, a liquidity effect of +0.31%, reflecting a renewed tightening of Dirham liquidity conditions on the Moroccan interbank market. Against this backdrop, liquidity spreads widened by +30 BPS, closing the week at -1.4%.
Volatility indicators
Brent at its highest since June, amid the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
Les Brent prices reached $108/bbl this week, their highest level since June, driven by US-Iran tensions and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, reviving fears of an energy shock with global inflationary repercussions. As the main driver of volatility in the foreign exchange markets, this surge leads us to recommend that operators hedge their positions over short-term horizons.
EUR/USD outlook – BLOOMBERG
Broker forecasts were kept stable this week. The pair is expected to trade around 1.16 in Q4-26, before reaching 1.17 in Q1-27, a level at which it should stabilize until Q2-27. In Q3-27, the target is expected to be 1.18. For 2027, the pair should continue to trade around 1.19. Over the longer term, it is expected to be 1.18 for 2028 and 1.20 for 2029.
This week’s inflation data highlighted the continuance of price pressures in the United States. Year-on-year CPI for August came in stable at 3.4%, a level that remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In the same vein, Core CPI for August stood at 0.3%, against a 0.2% consensus. Recently, the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations index for September came in at 4.6%, up from 4.0% previously. Against this backdrop, investors’ attention this week will turn to the September FOMC meeting, at the end of which markets expect a +25 BPS rate hike from the Fed, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The European Central Bank, for its part, decided to rise its deposit facility rate by + 25 BPS, as forecasted by markets. This rise comes amid heightened volatility, fueled by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On the macroeconomics front, the Eurozone’s annual GPD for Q2-26 came in at 0.5%, against a 1.0% forecast
Upward review of our forecasts at the 1-month 2-month and 3-month horizons
Given the EUR/USD forecasts and liquidity conditions on the foreign exchange market, we have reviewed our USD/MAD projections upward at the 1-month, 2-month and 3-month horizons.
Broker expectations on the EUR/USD point to an appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar over the 1-to-3-month horizons, relative to spot levels.
Dirham liquidity spreads, for their part, are expected to gradually narrow over the 1-month, 2-month, and 3 month horizons, compared to current levels.
Under these conditions, the target levels for the USD/MAD pair come out at 9.51, 9.56 and 9.56 over the 1-month, 2-month and 3-month horizons, versus a spot level of 9.39.
The target levels for the EUR/MAD pair come out at 10.88, 10.93 and 10.93 at the 1-month, 2-month and 3-month horizons, versus a spot level of 10.89.
