International highlights
The Dollar strengthened by Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole
The EUR/USD pair depreciated by -0.80%, moving from 1.1679 to 1.1585 at the end of the week. Kevin Warsh's speech, combined with favourable macroeconomic releases in the United States, supported the Dollar this week. On Friday, during his address at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Chair Warsh stated that keeping inflation under control at 2% remains the Federal Reserve's priority. These remarks reinforced market expectations in favour of upcoming monetary tightening. On the macroeconomic front, the July PCE came in at 3.7% year-on-year, versus a consensus of 3.6%. On the basis of these elements, investors now forecast a more restrictive monetary policy from the Fed at the coming FOMC meetings.
MAD evolution and foreign exchange market liquidity indicators
The Dirham supported by a twofold effect this week
The USD/MAD retreated by -0.14% this week, to 9.26. Behind this, a twofold effect in favour of the Dirham. On the one hand, a negative liquidity effect at -0.09%, reflecting an easing of liquidity conditions on the Moroccan interbank foreign exchange market. For its part, the basket effect came in at -0.05% this week. Against this backdrop, liquidity spreads eased by -9 BPS, to -2.6% at the end of the week.
Volatility indicators
The Dollar strengthened by Warsh's speech, oil in retreat
The DXY index moved positively this week, up +0.91%, to 99.77. This rise follows the speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who stressed the importance of returning inflation to its 2% target. In parallel, Brent prices fell by -5.38%, to $89/bbl. Volatility remains heightened on the foreign exchange market. We therefore recommend that operators secure their transactions over short-term horizons.
EUR/USD outlook – BLOOMBERG
Broker forecasts were broadly revised this week. The pair is expected to trade around 1.16 in Q3-26, versus 1.15 a week earlier, a level at which it should stabilise until Q4-26. In Q1-27, the target remains set at 1.17. From Q2-27, the target should hold around 1.17, reaching 1.19 over full-year 2027, versus 1.18 last week. Over the longer term, the pair is expected at 1.19 for 2028, versus 1.18 a week earlier, and 1.21 in 2029.
In the United States, macroeconomic releases were favourable to the Dollar this week. The PCE price index came in at 3.7%, above expectations of 3.6%. Weekly jobless claims, for their part, fell by -4K, to 203K. In addition, the University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations stood at 3.3%, in line with forecasts. In this environment, markets forecast a monetary status quo from the Fed at the September FOMC, coupled with a probability of a +25 BPS hike at the December FOMC, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In the Eurozone, the minutes of the ECB's latest monetary policy meeting revealed that officials were now considering a further rate hike, potentially as early as September. Against this backdrop, markets are strongly pricing in a probability of a +25 BPS hike by the ECB in September, according to the ECB Watch tool.
