International highlights
The Euro supported by Waller's dovish remarks
The EUR/USD pair appreciated by +0.25% to 1.1614 at the end of the week. Statements by Governor Christopher Waller, in favour of the Fed holding rates should upcoming data confirm an easing of inflationary pressures, penalised the Dollar this week. On the macroeconomic front, August non-farm payrolls surprised positively, at 162K, versus forecasts of 55K. In addition, the unemployment rate remained stable, at 4.1%, as of end-August. Against this backdrop, markets continue to anticipate a rate hike by both the Fed and the ECB at the September monetary policy meetings.
MAD evolution and foreign exchange market liquidity indicators
The Dirham penalised by the tightening of liquidity at the end of summer
L'USD/MAD The USD/MAD appreciated by +1.00% this week, movingfrom 9.22 to 9.35, thus recording the largest move since January 2026. Behind this, a liquidity effect that came out at +0.92%, reflecting a tightening of Dirham liquidity conditions on the interbank foreign exchange market, following the summer period in Morocco. Accordingly, liquidity spreads widened sharply by +90 BPS, to -1.7% at the end of the week. For its part, the basket effect came out positive, standing at +0.08%.
Volatility indicators
Brent sharply higher against a backdrop of revived geopolitical tensions
Brent prices appreciated sharply by +6.40% at the end of the week, to $96/bbl. This rise comes in an environment marked by a resurgence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and by the lack of resolution of the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. In light of these developments, foreign exchange markets remain highly volatile. We therefore recommend that operators secure their positions over short-term horizons.
EUR/USD outlook – BLOOMBERG
Broker forecasts were broadly revised this week. The pair is expected to trade around 1.16 in Q4-26, before reaching 1.17 in Q1-27, a level at which it should stabilize until Q2-27. In Q3-27, the target is now expected at 1.18, versus 1.19 a week earlier. For 2027, the pair should still trade around 1.19. Over the longer term, it is expected at 1.18 for 2028, versus 1.21 last week, and 1.20 for 2029.
Data released in the United States this week pointed to mixed signals on the labour market. On the one hand, August NFP non-farm payrolls improved, standing at 167K, versus expectations of 55K. Conversely, the ADP non-farm employment change slowed, to 38K in August, versus 46K a month earlier. The unemployment rate, for its part, came out stable, at 4.1%. On the basis of these elements, markets continue to anticipate a +25 BPS hike by the Fed at the September FOMC, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
On the Eurozone side, the August CPI came out stable year-on-year, at 3.3%. The HCOB manufacturing PMI stood at 52.7 for August, versus a consensus of 52.8. In addition, the HCOB services PMI recorded a decline of -0.1 point, standing at 51.6 as of end-August. In this environment, investors widely anticipate a +25 BPS hike by the ECB at the September monetary policy meeting, according to the ECB Watch tool.
