International highlights
The Euro lifted by solid data in the Eurozone
The EUR/USD pair appreciated by +0.94% to 1.1679, its highest level since May 2026. Favourable macroeconomic releases in the Eurozone supported the Euro this week. On the one hand, the August HCOB manufacturing PMI came in at 52.8, versus a consensus of 51.8, signalling an acceleration in activity in the sector. The services PMI, for its part, remained stable versus the previous month, at 51.7. In addition, the July CPI came in line with expectations, at 2.5%. On the basis of these elements, investors continue to anticipate an ECB rate hike in September, against a still-cautious Fed.
MAD evolution and foreign exchange market liquidity indicators
The Dirham lifted by the basket effect against a sharply falling Dollar
The USD/MAD retreated by -0.34% this week, moving from 9.30 to 9.27. The Dirham was primarily supported by a negative basket effect of -0.51%, in line with the Dollar's sharp depreciation on the international market. The liquidity effect, for its part, stood at +0.17%, reflecting a tightening of liquidity conditions on the Moroccan interbank foreign exchange market. In this environment, liquidity spreads widened by +17 BPS, to -2.5% at the end of the week.
Volatility indicators
Fed caution and rising oil sustain uncertainty
The Fed's cautious tone, combined with disappointing macroeconomic releases in the United States, continues to sustain uncertainty in the markets. Investors now anticipate a monetary status quo from the Fed at the September FOMC. In parallel, Brent prices continue to rise, to $93/bbl at the end of the week. In an environment characterised by high volatility, we recommend that operators hedge their transactions over short-term horizons.
EUR/USD outlook – BLOOMBERG
Broker forecasts were broadly revised this week. The pair is expected to trade around 1.15 in Q3-26, before reaching 1.16 in Q4-26. In Q1-27, the target is now set at 1.17, versus 1.16 a week earlier. From Q2-27, the target should hold around 1.17, reaching 1.18 over full-year 2027. Over the longer term, the pair is expected at 1.18 for 2028 and 1.21 in 2029, versus 1.17 and 1.18 respectively last week.
In the United States, the August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 47.4, versus a consensus of 24.1, reflecting a marked improvement in the business climate in the region. Jobless claims, for their part, stood at 206K, down -6K from a week earlier. Against this backdrop, investors continue to anticipate a monetary status quo from the Fed at the September FOMC, according to the CME fedWatch.
In the Eurozone, the ZEW economic sentiment index came in at 31.4, versus forecasts of 25.9, reflecting a clear renewal of economic confidence. In addition, the July CPI came in line with forecasts, at 2.5%. On the basis of these elements, markets anticipate a +25 BPS rate hike by the ECB at the next monetary policy meeting in September, according to the ECB Watch tool.
Maintaining our forecasts at the 1-month 2-month and 3-month horizons
iven the EUR/USD forecasts and liquidity conditions on the foreign exchange market, we have maintained our USD/MAD projections at the 1-month, 2-month and 3-month horizons. Broker expectations on the EUR/USD point to an appreciation of the Dollar against the Euro over the 1-to-3-month horizons, relative to spot levels.
Dirham liquidity spreads, for their part, should narrow gradually at the 1-month, 2-month and 3-month horizons compared with current levels. Under these conditions, the target levels for the USD/MAD pair come out at 9.33, 9.38 and 9.41 over the 1-month, 2-month and 3-month horizons, versus a spot level of 9.27. The target levels for the EUR/MAD pair come out at 10.65, 10.71 and 10.74 at the 1-month, 2-month and 3-month horizons, versus a spot level of 10.78.
