Exchange rate trends: between volatility and opposing forces
The EUR/USD pair depreciated by -0.60% to 1.1297, but rose by +4.7% in April, the strongest monthly gain since November 2022.
The White House announced its decision to mitigate the impact of tariffs on the automobile industry, which supported the Dollar this week. Furthermore, note that the unexpected contraction in US GDP in Q1-25 (-0.3%) was not interpreted as a recession in the United States. Indeed, this was due to the sharp increase in imports in anticipation of the entry into force of the new tariffs. In the Euro Zone, inflation remained stable at 2.2% in April, and markets are anticipating continued monetary easing by the European Central Bank starting in June.
USD/MAD exchange rate sees slight decline
The USD/MAD pair depreciated slightly this week, by -0.09% to 9.27. This was due to two opposing effects. On the one hand, there was a very slightly positive basket effect of +0.05%, thanks to the Dollar's appreciation this week. On the other, there was a market effect of -0.14%, following the continued easing of liquidity conditions for the Dirham. The Dirham's liquidity spreads thus continued to improve, by -14 BPS to their lowest levels in more than three years, at -4.06%, thanks to stronger export flows than import flows. These are comfortable spread levels, approaching the lower band of the Dirham's fluctuation band of -5.0%.
Significant currency volatility
Uncertainties related to trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China, are rekindling concerns about global economic growth and fueling international currency volatility. As such, significant currency volatility is expected. We recommend operators to hedge their trades over time horizons from 1 to 3 months.
