EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Listed companies' release of their operating results for the 4th quarter of 2020 takes place in a context marked by the gradual recovery of economic activity in Morocco. According to the HCP, the Moroccan economy would have declined by -5.5% in Q4-20 after a sharper decrease of -7.2% a quarter earlier.
At the end of February 2021, 71 listed companies out of a total of 73 released their revenue in Q4-20. These weight 99% in the market capitalization.
At the end of our analysis and taking into account our investment strategy, which revolves around Cash-Conversion, we share with you four main messages to keep in mind :
- The underperformance of listed companies' aggregate revenue in Q4-20 settled at -6.7% after two successive declines in Q2-20 and Q3-20 of -10.5% and -4.5% respectively ;
- Excluding Automotive and Telecom sectors, all listed sectors show a visible decline in their revenues in Q4-20. In absolute terms, the most significant quarterly variations concern the Real Estate (MAD -1,527 Mn) and Energy (MAD -1,312 Mn) sectors ;
- On an annual basis, 2020 resulted in a -5.1% drop in the market¡¦s aggregate revenue. It would be noted that the Retail, Banking, Mining and Telecoms sectors showed resilience with sales up respectively +5.9%, +3.0%, +1.6% and +0.7% ;
- The preliminary assessment of our portfolio under the theme of "cash-conversion " shows : (1) A resilience in revenue with a limited decline of -1.8% against -5.1% for the market, (2) A stock market performance 4 times higher than the MASI index over a 3-month horizon, (3) Reliability of our 2020 forecasts with an average achievement rate of 99%. This supports our 2021 recommendations.
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