INTERNATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
The liquidity spread of the dirham, which represents the difference between the reference price of the MAD and its central price, is reduced by +0.7 PBS. It stands this week at -4.23%, a 7-month high, stable from the previous week.
The foreign exchange position of Moroccan banks remains in deficit at -2.5 billion dirhams on average this week. This shortage mainly reflects the increase in import flows linked to an end-of-year seasonality effect.
Taking into account a near-neutral liquidity effect of +0.01% and a negative basket effect of -0.12%, the dirham appreciates significantly by + 0.11% against the dollar this week.
The Fed's "tapering" as well as expectations of US rate hikes should favor the dollar against the MAD in the short run.
Given the liquidity levels of the foreign exchange market as well as the high levels of volatility, we recommend hedging the import flows to short term in line with our scenario of depreciation of the dirham over the next 3 months.
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