Recent Evolution of the EUR/USD Exchange Rate
The EUR/USD pair rose by +0.33% to reach 1.1393, its highest level in over three years.
The rise in trade tensions between the United States and China continues to weaken the Dollar, whose role as a safe-haven asset is increasingly questioned. This loss of confidence is prompting investors to redirect their capital towards markets outside the United States.
In the Eurozone, the ECB, as widely anticipated, lowered its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The institution is now focusing on supporting economic growth rather than fighting inflation, and markets expect an additional two to three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2025.
USD/MAD Exchange Rate: Stability Supported by Liquidity
Regarding the USD/MAD exchange rate, it remained nearly stable this week, slightly declining by -0.06% from 9.28 to 9.27. This stability results from two opposing effects: a positive basket effect of +0.17%, offset by a negative market effect of -0.23%, linked to the continued easing of liquidity conditions for the Dirham in the Moroccan interbank market. The improvement in liquidity spreads, which moved from -22 basis points to -3.82%, is mainly explained by export flows exceeding imports.
Trade Tensions and Exchange Rate Volatility
In this context of heightened trade tensions between the United States and China, global economic uncertainties remain significant, which is expected to increase volatility in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, operators are advised to hedge their transactions over horizons of 1 to 3 months.
