EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Akdital's capital increase of MAD 1.0 Bn is a continuation of its development model which is mainly “growth” focused. Since its IPO in December 2022, Akdital has confirmed its position as a leader in the Moroccan private health sector through a market share of 15% in terms of private bed capacity and a displayed commitment to improving the health system in Morocco.
In accordance with its Business Plan, disclosed during its IPO in 2022, Akdital displays both rapid and sustainable growth in its operational indicators. At the end of June 2024, the operator has 23 health establishments with a total capacity of 2,532 beds spread across 11 cities in the Kingdom.
At the end of our analysis and taking into account the current stock market context, we recommend investors “SUBSCRIBING” to Akdital’s capital increase. Our recommendation is based on the following arguments:
(1) « Health » thematic continues to arouse keen interest within the financial community, driven by the King-dom’s new vision. Concretely, the overhaul of the national health system and the generalization of health insurance to the whole population should generate positive news flow in favor of the stock in the future;
(2) A positive track record for Akdital since its IPO in terms of: (1) the opening pace of health establishments, (2) the growth of its operational indicators and (3) the behavior of its stock on the market. For investors, this new fundraising portends a new positive stock market cycle for the years to come;
(3) A “Growth” stock which should benefit from an improvement in its valuation multiples through a P/E 27E of 12.4x. Concretely, the dilution of shareholders on the market during this new capital increase should be absorbed gradually, as the new establishments become operational (commissioning of +12 Post-Money units in Q4-25E and in 2026E);
(4) A displayed discount of 13.0% compared to the subscription price (as of July 2nd 2024), offering investors an attractive entry point and an additional safety cushion for their capital gain over a ST horizon.
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