Investors anticipate the key rate
During our recent survey, we identified investors' expectations regarding the evolution of the Moroccan Central Bank Key rate during its 2nd monetary policy meeting scheduled for June 23rd, 2026. Recall that this survey was carried out among a sample of 35 investors considered among the most influential of the Moroccan financial market.
At the end of this exercise, investor consensus is almost unanimous regarding a status quo in the Key rate of the Moroccan Central Bank.
Following the analysis of answers obtained, the probability of a status quo in the Key rate is 93% against a probability of 7% for an increase of +25 BPS in the Key rate. Moreover, the probability of a decrease in the Key rate is zero.
Following the analysis of answers by investors' categories, we note four main findings:
- Institutional investors, Reference Actors and Individuals investors are unanimous for the scenario of status quo in the Key rate in June 2026;
- Foreign investors assign a probability of 80% for the scenario of a stable Key rate against a probability of 20% for an increase of +25 BPS in the Key rate.
