Towards an unchanged key rate: financial actors reach consensus
During our recent survey, we identified investors' expectations regarding the evolution of the Moroccan Central Bank Key rate during its 1st monetary policy meeting scheduled for March 17th, 2026. Recall that this survey was carried out among a sample of 35 investors considered among the most influential of the Moroccan financial market.
At the end of this exercise, investor consensus is almost unanimous regarding a status quo in the Key rate of the Moroccan Central Bank. Following the analysis of answers obtained, the probability of a status quo in the Key rate is 99% against a probability of 1% for an increase of +25 BPS in the Key rate. Moreover, the probability of a decrease in the Key rate is zero.
Breakdown of expectations by investor type
Following the analysis of answers by investors' categories, we note four main findings:
- Institutional investors and Reference Actors(1) are unanimous for the scenario of status quo in the Key rate in March 2026;
- Foreign investors assign a probability of 99% for the scenario of a stable Key rate against a probability of 1% for an increase of +25 BPS in the Key rate;
- Individuals investors give a probability of 96% for the scenario of status quo in the Key rate against a probability of 4% for an increase of +25 BPS in the Key rate.
