Financial investors' expectations towards Bank Al-Maghirb's key rate
In our recent survey, we identified investors' expectations regarding the evolution of the Moroccan Central Bank Key rate during its 4th and last monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 16th, 2025. Recall that this survey was carried out among a sample of 35 investors considered among the most influential of the Moroccan financial market.
At the end of this survey, investor consensus supports a status quo in the Key rate of the Moroccan Central Bank.
Following the analysis of answers obtained, the probability of a status quo in the Key rate is 73% against a probability of 27% for a decrease of -25 BPS in the Key rate. Moreover, the probability of a more significant decrease of -50 BPS in the Key rate is zero.
Distribution of the probabilities communicated by our sample
Following the analysis of answers by investors' categories, we note four main findings:
- Institutional investors give a probability of 70% for the scenario of status quo in the Key rate against a probability of 30% for a decrease of -25 BPS ;
- Reference Actors assign a probability of 75% for the scenario of a stable Key rate against a probability of 25% for a drop of -25 BPS in the Key rate ;
- Foreign are almost unanimous for the scenario of status quo in the Key rate with a probability of 80% against a probability of 20% for a decrease of -25 BPS ;
- Individuals investors give a probability of 71% for the scenario of status quo in the Key rate against a probability of 29% for a decrease of -25 BPS.
