Investor expectations on Morocco’s central bank key rate

Financial investors’ expectations on the key rate

In our June survey, we gathered the views of 35 leading investors in the Moroccan financial market to assess their expectations regarding the evolution of Bank Al-Maghrib’s key rate. This consultation was conducted in the run-up to the central bank’s second monetary policy meeting of the year, scheduled for June 24, 2025.

The findings reveal a clear consensus: most market participants anticipate no change in the key rate.

Probabilities of maintaining or lowering the key rate

Based on the survey responses, the probability of maintaining the key rate at its current level is estimated at 80%, while the probability of a -25 basis points cut stands at 20%. No respondents foresee an increase in the key rate during this meeting.

Breakdown of expectations by investor category

A closer look at the responses by investor group highlights some differences in outlook:

• Local institutional investors: These participants assign an 81% probability to a stable key rate and 19% to a -25 BPS cut.
• Reference actors: This category estimates a 69% likelihood of no change and a 31% probability of a -25 BPS decrease.
• Foreign investors: Expectations among international participants are similar to local institutions, with 80% in favor of a status quo and 20% anticipating a cut.
• Individual investors: Retail investors show near unanimity, with 93% expecting no change in the key rate and only 7% foreseeing a decrease.

Market leaning towards short-term monetary stability

The alignment across investor categories suggests a strong belief in the central bank’s current policy stance. The prevailing expectation of stability is supported by macroeconomic indicators viewed as compatible with maintaining the key rate at present levels, at least in the short term.