International highlights
EUR/USD supported by reassuring indicators in the Eurozone
Taking advantage of downward pressure on the Dollar and supported by resilient macroeconomic data in the eurozone, the EUR/USD pair appreciated by +1.98% to stand at 1.1828. Note that this is the highest level since April 2025. Following Donald Trump's agreement with NATO on Greenland, which averted the tariff threats made earlier in the week against European countries, several economic indicators in the Eurozone reassured investors this week. Private sector activity in the Eurozone continued to grow in January 2026, while business optimism regarding growth in the coming year reached a 20-month high.
MAD evolution and foreign exchange market liquidity indicators
The Dollar penalized by a two negative effect
The USD/MAD pair depreciated by -0.70%, falling from 9.22 to 9.16 this week. This development stems from a dual effect that is favorable to the Dirham. First, the basket effect was -0.66%, resulting from the strong appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar on the international market. Second, the liquidity effect was slightly negative at -0.04%, reflecting a positive dynamic for the Dirham this week. This trend can be explained by improved liquidity conditions on the interbank foreign exchange market. In this context, liquidity spreads have eased by -3.5 BPS to -3.14% this week.
Volatility indicators
Fed: Monetary policy under pressure
Market attention this week, particularly on Wednesday, will focus on the Fed's decision, which is expected to keep interest rates largely unchanged. Meanwhile, international trade tensions are increasing the pressure on the US central bank. In this uncertain context, we recommend traders to hedge their transactions over 1 to 3 months.
EUR/USD outlook– BLOOMBERG
Brokers' forecasts for the EUR/USD pair have globally been revised upwards this week. The pair is expected to trade around 1.18 in Q1-26 and 1.19 in Q2-26, compared to 1.17 and 1.18 respectively a week earlier, and then 1.19 in Q3-26. In Q4-26, it is expected to continue its upward trend to 1.20, compared to 1.19 a week earlier. In 2027, it is projected to reach 1.22, compared to 1.20 a week earlier. For the 2028-2029 period, the target is 1.21.
The US economy remains broadly resilient, supported by a gradual improvement in employment indicators, which should lead the Federal Reserve to keep its key interest rates unchanged at the January 2026 FOMC meeting scheduled for this week. Markets will nevertheless continue to anticipate an initial rate cut of -25 basis points in June 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Moreover, the ZEW index of economic sentiment for the Eurozone recorded a significant increase to reach 40.8 in January 2026, its highest level since July 2024. This signal reflects a more optimistic economic climate and reinforces market expectations that the ECB's deposit facility rate will remain unchanged at 2.00% throughout 2026, according to the ECB Watch tool.
Downwards of our 2 months and 3 months horizon forecats
Considering the EUR/USD parity forecasts and liquidity conditions in the foreign exchange market, we have revised downwards our USD/MAD pair forecasts for the 2-months and 3-months horizons.
Brokers' EUR/USD parity forecasts suggest a slight appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar over a 3-months horizon, compared to spot levels.
The Dirham liquidity spreads should gradually tighten over 1 month, 2 month and 3 month horizons compared to spot levels.
Under these conditions, the target levels for the USD/MAD parity are:
- 9,25 at 1 month
- 9,25 at 2 months
- 9,29 at 3 months
compared to a spot rate of 9.16
The target levels for the EUR/MAD exchange rate are:
- 10,80 at 1 month
- 10,80 at 2 months
- 10,86 at 3 months
against a spot level of 10.75.
