EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Marsa Maroc has just announced on February 18th 2025, a strategic partnership which marks a new stage in its development. This involves the signing of an agreement with Terminal Investment Limited (TIL), a subsidiary of the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) Group, considered to be the leading shipowner worldwide.
This announcement confirms Marsa Maroc's aim to accelerate the pace of its development over the next decade and provides better visibility in terms of the valuation assumptions disclosed in our last Research Note (Cf- Marsa Maroc: The growth story far from over).
Besides our analysis, we have revised the target price of the stock upwards from 620 to MAD 780. The improved visibility on Marsa Maroc's new growth profile resulted in a decrease in the discount rate (WACC) of -20 BPS and an increase in the Terminal Value of +33%. This seems to us to be more consistent with the target size of the operator by 2035E. To this end, we recommend BUYING Marsa Maroc stock in a LT investment logic, greater than 5 years.
The main messages developed in this note are as follows:
1. This strategic partnership attests to Marsa Maroc's aim to position itself at the heart of global trade and confirms Morocco's position as a true transhipment logistics hub in the Mediterranean sea. A positioning supported by a latest-generation port infrastructure, like Tanger Med and Nador West Med;
2. Marsa Maroc would benefit from both the connectivity of Nador West Med with the world's major shipping lines and the agreements signed with two strategic partners, namely the 3rd world shipowner CMA CGM associated with the 1st phase of the Terminal, and the 1st shipowner MSC, the subject of the recent announcement;
3. After the "Success Story" of Tanger Med, already saturated after 3 years of commissioning, Marsa Maroc is preparing to launch its 2nd growth relay in the Mediterranean by 2027E. The port of Nador West Med thus completes Morocco's transhipment offer in the Mediterranean in a context marked by the saturation of port capacities in this area. A situation which confirms the refocusing of transhipment hubs towards the southern shore of the Mediterranean at the expense of large European terminals, such as Algeciras.
It should be noted that our valuation does not take into account: (1) Phase 2 of NWM, (2) Opportunities offered by the port of Dakhla Atlantique and, (3) Internationalization in Africa which has already started with two new projects in Benin and Liberia.
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