EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The publication of listed companies’ mid-term results took place in a context marked by the continued easing of inflation. In Morocco, the average inflation rate stood at 1.0% in H1-24 against 7.9% a year earlier. Under these conditions, Bank Al-Maghrib lowered its key rate by -25 BPS to 2.75% for the first time since March 2020 (Cf. Bank Al-Maghrib: Key Rate Decision of Q2-24).
We believe this new phase of monetary easing is consistent with the new investment dynamic initiated by Morocco.
At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2024, 67 listed companies published their quarterly revenues. At the end of our analysis, we come out with four key messages :
- In Q2-24, the market’s revenue growth shows a slight acceleration to +4.8% compared to +4.0% in Q1-24 and +2.3% in Q4-23. Three sectors have strongly contributed to this performance, namely: Banks (MAD +1,341 Mn), Building Materials (MAD +597 Mn) and Mining (MAD +510 Mn);
- Despite positive growth in cement sales in Q2-24 at +2.8%, the listed Cement sector shows a drop in revenue of MAD -235 Mn. This is attributed to the commissioning of the new plant of Novacim Group (unlisted company) with a 1.6 MT capacity besides the fall in clinker exports. As an indication, the latter would have decreased by more than half in Q1-24 to 213 KT;
- On a half-yearly basis, the market’s aggregate revenues reached MAD 157 Bn, up +4.4%. This growth was mainly driven by the banking sector, which recorded an increase in its NBI of +13.0% (MAD +5,266 Mn). Excluding this sector, the market’s revenue growth stood at +1.2% in H1-24;
- The mid-term achievements of the market are in line with our growth forecasts for the year 2024, i.e. an achievement rate close to 50%. To this end, we are maintaining our growth forecasts unchanged, namely: an increase in revenues of +5.3% in 2024E and +8.0% in 2025E. In terms of profitability, recurring profit growth would stand at +7.3% in 2024E before accelerating to +10.4% in 2025E under the effect of the entry into force of the investment projects formarly announced.
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