International highlights
Dollar Pullback Amid Weak Macro Data
The EUR/USD pair appreciated by +1.77% over the week, reaching 1.1723, its highest level since January 23, 2026. This move occurred in a context marked by the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, alongside weaker-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data, both of which weighed on the U.S. Dollar. Initial jobless claims rose by +13K, from 203K to 219K, pointing to a moderate softening in labor market conditions. In addition, inflation came in below expectations, increasing by +0.9% month-on-month, compared to a 1.0% consensus forecast, reinforcing the narrative of easing price pressures. In this environment, market participants continue to price in a monetary policy pause by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming April FOMC meeting.
MAD evolution and foreign exchange market liquidity indicators
Dual Effect Supporting the Dirham
The USD/MAD pair depreciated by -0.94% over the week, settling at 9.29. This move reflects a dual supportive effect for the Dirham. On the one hand, the basket effect came in at -0.82%, in line with the U.S. Dollar’s depreciation on international markets over the week. On the other hand, the liquidity effect stood at -0.12%, pointing to a marginal improvement in FX interbank liquidity conditions. In this context, liquidity spreads narrowed by -12 BPS, reaching -1.96% at week-end, reflecting more favorable market conditions for the Dirham.
Volatility indicators
Geopolitical easing, caution remains
The U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire has reduced immediate escalation risks, providing a window for renewed diplomatic negotiations. However, markets remain cautious, awaiting further clarity on negotiations and upcoming macro data, particularly regarding the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and growth. In this context, we recommend maintaining short-term hedging strategies to manage potential volatility.
EUR/USD outlook– BLOOMBERG
Broker forecasts for the EUR/USD pair were revised lower again this week. The pair is now expected to trade around 1.16 in Q2-26, compared to 1.17 previously, before reaching 1.17 in Q3-26. For Q4-26, the target has been adjusted to 1.18, down from 1.19, and is projected at 1.19 in Q1-27. Over the 2027 horizon, expectations stand at 1.20, slightly lower than the previous 1.21. Longer-term projections have also been revised downwards, to 1.19 in 2028 and 1.21 in 2029.
On the macro front, recent U.S. data highlighted the impact of rising energy prices on economic activity. Q4 2025 GDP growth came in at 0.5%, marking a sharp deceleration of -3.9 pts compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims increased by +13K to 219K, pointing to the early signs of a gradual softening in the labor market. On the inflation side, price dynamics remain contained. March CPI rose by +0.9% month-on-month, below the 1.0% consensus, while annual inflation came in at 3.3%, slightly under expectations of 3.4%, reinforcing the view of easing inflationary pressures. In this context, these developments continue to support market expectations of a monetary policy pause by the FED at the upcoming April FOMC meeting.
In the Eurozone, the HCOB services PMI for March stood at 50.2, slightly above expectations (50.1), signaling resilient economic activity. Against this backdrop, and despite an uncertain geopolitical environment, markets are currently pricing in a hawkish the European Central Bank (ECB) stance, with expectations of multiple rate hikes in 2026, particularly in response to persistent inflationary risks linked to higher energy prices.
Maintaining our forecasts over the 1- 2- and 3-month horizons
Considering the EUR/USD parity forecasts and the liquidity conditions in the foreign exchange market, we have maintained our forecasts for the USD/MAD pair over the 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month horizons.
Broker expectations for EUR/USD point to a slight appreciation of the US Dollar against the Euro over the 3-month horizon, relative to current spot levels.
Meanwhile, Dirham liquidity spreads are expected to gradually tighten over the 1- and 2-month horizons compared to current levels, before easing at the 3-month horizon.
Under these conditions, our target levels for USD/MAD stand at 9.34, 9.34, and 9.31 over the 1-,2-,and 3-month horizons, respectively, compared to a current spot level of 9.29.
Similarly, EUR/MAD targets are projected at 10.91, 10.91, and 10.88 over the 1-, 2-, and 3-month horizons, respectively, compared to a current spot level of 10.87.
