International highlights
The Dollar supported by favorable indicators
The EUR/USD pair has depreciated by -0.30% this week to reach 1.1815. Indeed, the Dollar remained supported by solid US macroeconomic indicators and by the prospects of a less accommodative chairman at the head of the Fed. First, the PMI index came in at 52.4, compared to forecasts of 51.9. Second, the consumer confidence index improved by +2.3 points, to 57.3. These developments thus pushed back market expectations of an upcoming rate cut by the Fed, thereby strengthening the USD internationally.
MAD evolution and foreign exchange market liquidity indicators
Double positive effect in favor of the Dollar this week
The USD/MAD pair appreciated by +1.09%, rising from 9.08 to 9.18 this week. This was driven by a double positive effect in favor of the Dollar. On the one hand, a positive basket effect of +0.71% linked to the appreciation of the Dollar against the Euro internationally. On the other hand, a positive liquidity effect of +0.38%, linked to the tightening of liquidity conditions on the interbank foreign exchange market. In this context, spreads tightened by +37.1 BPS to -2.59% this week. Nevertheless, these have remained in negative territory since June 2024, after reaching lows of -5% in August 2025, the lower limit of the MAD fluctuation band.
Volatility indicators
ECB: Monetary status quo since June 2025
While the economic situation remains under control in the Eurozone encouraging the ECB to maintain the monetary status quo since June 2025, the monetary outlook in the United States remains uncertain. In this context of high volatility, we recommend traders to hedge their transactions over 1 to 3 months.
EUR/USD outlook– BLOOMBERG
Brokers' long-term forecasts for the EUR/USD pair have been reviewed this week. The pair is expected to trade around 1.18 in Q1-26 and 1.19 in Q2-26. In Q3-26 and Q4-26, it should continue its upward trend to 1.20, before reaching 1.22 in 2027. For the 2028-2029 period, the target is now 1.22 for 2028 and 1.23 for 2029, compared to 1.20 a week earlier.
The release of recent macroeconomic data confirmed the resilience of the US economy, with the PMI rising +0.5 points in January. Furthermore, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman helped reassures markets regarding the timing of the next key rate cut. However, less favorable employment data released on Thursday, with weekly jobless claims reaching 231K, exceeding the forecast of 212K, could reignite speculation about more significant monetary easing by the Fed this year. At this stage, markets continue to forecast two rate cuts of -25 BPS each in 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The EZ economy recorded growth of 1.5% in 2025, an improvement of +0.9% compared to 2024. At the same time, inflation fell to 1.7%, its lowest level since September 2024. Despite this easing of prices, the ECB decided to maintain its key rates unchanged at 2% from June 2025.
We maintain our 1 month, 2 months and 3 months horizon forecats
Considering the EUR/USD parity forecasts and liquidity conditions in the foreign exchange market, we have maintained our USD/MAD pair forecasts for the 1-month, 2-month and 3-month horizons.
The brokers’ forecasts of the EUR/USD parity point towards a slight appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar over a 3-month horizon, compared to spot levels.
The Dirham Liquidity spreads are expected to gradually tighten over the next 1 month, 2 month and 3 month horizons compared to spot levels.
Under these conditions, the target levels of the USD/MAD exchange rate stand at:
- 9,25 at 1 month
- 9,25 at 2 months
- 9,29 at 3 months
compared to a spot rate of 9.18
The target levels for the EUR/MAD exchange rate stand at:
- 10,80 at 1 month
- 10,80 at 2 months
- 10,86 at 3 months
against a spot level of 10.83.
