International highlights
The dollar penalized by geopolitical tensions
The EUR/USD pair appreciated by +0.19% to 1.1851 this week. Despite reassuring employment data in the United States and the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged, the Dollar lost ground due to geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Meanwhile, the EZ economy grew faster than expected, with annual GDP reaching 1.3% compared to a forecast of 1.2%. This demonstrates the resilience of exports despite US trade uncertainties. On the other hand, the European unemployment rate recorded a decrease of -0.1%, falling from 6.3% to 6.2% at the end of December 2025.
MAD evolution and foreign exchange market liquidity indicators
An appreciation of the Dirham thanks to the basket effect
The USD/MAD pair has depreciated by -0.81%, falling from 9.16 to 9.08 this week. This development is due to a negative basket effect, which is favorable to the Dirham. The latter fell by -0.99% due to the depreciation of the Dollar on the international market. This completely offsets the negative impact of liquidity on the MAD. This represents a positive market effect of +0.18% this week. This is linked to the tightening of liquidity spreads in the Moroccan foreign exchange market. These spreads settled at -2.96% this week, an increase of +17.4 BPS. Note that liquidity spreads have remained negative since June 2024.
Volatility indicators
Increased volatility of international currencies
After three consecutive cuts, the Fed kept its key interest rates unchanged, citing persistently high inflation amid solid economic growth. This week, markets attention turns to the ECB, which will hold its meeting on February 4th regarding European monetary policy. In this uncertain context, we recommend traders to hedge their transactions over 1 to 3 months.
EUR/USD outlook– BLOOMBERG
Brokers' forecasts for the EUR/USD pair have been globally revised this week. The pair is expected to trade around 1.18 in Q1-26 and 1.19 in Q2-26. In Q3-26, it is expected to continue its upward trend to 1.20, compared to 1.19 the previous week. It should then stabilize at this level in Q4-26 before reaching 1.22 in 2027. For the 2028-2029 period, the target is 1.20, down from 1.21 previously.
US employment data showed a slight decrease of –1K in new jobless claims, confirming a strong labor market and reduced risks to employment. In this sense, the Fed kept its rates unchanged at the January FOMC meeting, in a range of [3.50-3.75]. Markets are now anticipating two monetary pauses in March and April, followed by an initial -25 BPS cut in June 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool. These expectations could, however, be revised, particularly following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman, announced Friday by President Donald Trump.
In the Eurozone, the macroeconomic situation remains generally under control, driven by favorable economic growth with GDP reaching 1.3% and the unemployment rate falling by -0.1% at the end of December 2025. In this context, markets expect the ECB to keep its rates unchanged at 2.00% at its meeting scheduled for this week, according to the ECB Watch tool.
We maintain our 1 month, 2 months and 3 months horizon forecats
Considering the EUR/USD parity forecasts and liquidity conditions in the foreign exchange market, we have maintained our USD/MAD pair forecasts for the 1-month, 2-months and 3-months horizons.
The forecasts of the EUR/USD parity by the brokers point towards a slight appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar over a 3-month horizon, compared to spot levels.
The Dirham Liquidity spreads are expected to gradually tighten over the next 1 month, 2 months and 3 months horizons compared to spot levels.
Under these conditions, the target levels of the USD/MAD exchange rate stand at:
- 9,25 at 1 month
- 9,25 at 2 months
- 9,29 at 3 months
compared to a spot rate of 9.08
The target levels for the EUR/MAD exchange rate stand at:
- 10,80 at 1 month
- 10,80 at 2 months
- 10,86 at 3 months
against a spot level of 10.83.
