RESULTS’ SUMMARY FOR Q3-21
In this 11th edition, we analysed the AGR Africa Bond Index evolution during Q3-21. The main findings are as follows :
- The value of the AGR ABI index stands at 100.2 pts against 104.4 pts in the last edition, i.e. a decrease of 4.2 pts ;
- The deposit outstanding remains around $ 104.0 Bn. This is attributed to the increase in the number of lines meeting the eligibility criteria of our index, going from 82 in Q2-21 to 87 in Q3-21. This change stems, on the one hand, from the inclusion of 2 new Eurobond issues in the index, consisting of 3 lines each. These concern Nigeria, which issued $ 4.0 Bn subdivided into 3 tranches (7, 12 and 30 years) and Egypt, which has realized its second Eurobond issue of the year 2021 for a total amount of $ 3.0 Bn composed of 3 maturities (6, 12 and 30 years). On the other hand, we note the withdrawal of an issue from Egypt whose residual maturity has become strictly less than 6 months ;
- The AGR Africa Bond Index is still represented by 6 African countries like the previous edition. Indeed, the latter is composed by Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa which are largely representative in this benchmark. These 3 countries monopolize nearly 60% of the deposit outstanding while Ghana, Morocco and Kenya share the remaining 40% ;
- The observation of the current index breakdown by S&P rating agency shows the strong contribution of B- rated bonds which monopolize almost 38% of AGR ABI. Furthermore, this latter is composed for 76% of residual maturities strictly superior to 5 years.
Since our last report related to Q2-21, the scope changed following the two ¡§rebalancing¡¨ of the AGR Africa Bond Index which occurred at the end of August and September 2021. Since then, we note on the one hand, 2 new Eurobond issued by two countries which have been included in the index, each made up of three lines. It is about Nigeria which issued for an aggregate amount of $ 4.0 Bn while the second issue concerns Egypt which has raised $ 3.0 Bn. On the other hand, we have also observed the withdrawal of one Egyptian Eurobond line. The results of this new scope are as follows :
- A decrease in AGR ABI value
The AGR Africa Bond Index fell by 4.1%, from 104.4 pts in July 2021 to 100.2 pts in October 2021. along with a stagnation in the total size of the index deposit which amount to $ 104 Bn despite the increase in the number of constituents, which reaches 87 bond lines at the end of Q3-21 against 82 a quarter earlier.
- An almost stability in residual maturity
The weighted residual maturity of the AGR Africa Bond Index stood at 12.2 years after the last rebalancing. This appears to be almost stable compared to the level observed in Q2-21, i.e. 12.2 years. Currently, the AGR ABI index consisted of 44.9% of Eurobonds with a residual maturity between 5 and 12 years.
Read more.
