Correction du MASI des opportunités tactiques confirmées par les résultats 2025
Financial and economic news MASI correction analyzed in our March 10 2026 report amid Middle East tensions seen as a transitional market phase
Au terme de la période de publication des résultats 2025 des sociétés cotées, nous partageons avec vous les principaux enseignements à retenir :
- At the end of April 2026, the stock market evolution confirms our initial scenario outlined in March (Cf. Stock Market Pullback : Tactical Repositioning Opportunities). As anticipated, at the first signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, investors quickly refocused on the market’s economic fundamentals. Supported by the strength of listed companies’ FY 2025 results, the MASI has almost erased its losses for 2026, improving from a -13% YTD underperformance to -1% as of April 30th 2026;
- The AGR portfolio, constructed around sectors offering tactical entry points following the market’s correction, delivered solid performances over the period under review(1), ranging from +8% for Building Materials, to +11% for Ports and Cement, and +14% for Healthcare;
- On a recurring basis, the market’s earnings growth reached +21.4% in 2025, posting the highest level since 2021, the year witnessing the technical rebound following the COVID-19 crisis. This performance was primarily driven by the record results of the mining companies in a highly supportive metals momentum. Excluding the mining sector, the ordinary earnings growth remains attractive at +15.0%;
- As forecasted in our latest AGR-30 forecasts report published in early January (Cf. AGR-30 Forecasts 25E–26E), the mining sector is on track to display its most profitable year in 2026. This outlook is supported by the sustainability of metal prices at high levels, alongside the ramp -up in production volumes;
- Despite a +26% increase in dividends related to FY 2025, reaching MAD 25.2 Bn, the market’s dividend yield remains modest at 2.6%(2). This level stands below the 5-year T-Bill, at 2.8%. Under these conditions, the Moroccan stock market is increasingly positioning itself as a growth field rather than a yield-driven one.
Update on our Stock Market Scenario amid middle Eas tensions
In our report released on March 10th , (Cf. Stock Market Pullback : Tactical Repositioning Opportunities), we argued that the sharp correction of -12% in the MASI index was not solely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but also by purely domestic factors. On the one hand, the increasing weight of retail investors has contributed to amplify the market’s downturns.
On the other hand, the growing use by the Treasury of innovative financing operations via the REITs has weakened the “buying” power of institutional investors toward equities. In our view, as long as listed companies continue to deliver positive financial results, investors will, sooner or later, refocus on economic fundamentals, particularly once the first signs of easing geopolitical tensions emerge. Under these conditions, we recommended that investors take advantage of the market’s correction by tactically repositioning within the Banking, Building Materials, Healthcare, Cement, and Ports sectors. These sectors continue to take profit from an improvement in their valuation multiples (P/E), supported by the sustainability of their earnings growth, which are above expectations related to the FY 2025.
Self-Assessment of our Tactical recommendations following the Masi Correction - March 2026
At the end of April 2026, our scenario has clearly materialized, as evidenced by the following two key observations:
1. After recording a -13.0% YTD underperformance as of March 3rd 2026, the stock market has almost erased its losses during the month of April. This development confirms the “excessive” nature of the correction;
2. The sectors recommended during the correction phase reported FY 2025 earnings in March above expectations and showed solid performances(4) on the stock market, ranging from +8% for Building Materials, to +11% for Ports and Cement, and +14% for Healthcare. The banking sector remained almost stable over the same period.
Solid achievements conforming our 2026E Forecasts
Our self-assessment of the AGR-30 growth forecasts published in January highlights positive outcomes, with an achievement rate close to 100% in terms of aggregate revenues. By sector, the mining companies posted an achievement rate of 133%, reflecting revenues above our initial expectations. Meanwhile, seven sectors reported revenues broadly in line with our forecasts, with achievement rates close to 100%.
Indeed, the Mining sector’s revenues reached MAD 15.9 Bn in 2025, compared to an AGR estimate of MAD 12 Bn. This outperformance is mainly attributable to Managem, whose revenue exceeded expectations, driven by a positive price/volume effect.
Solid achievements conforming our 2026E Forecasts
At the earnings level, the achievement rate stands at a relatively high level of around 107%. This reflects the relatively conservative nature of our forecasts, as well as the impact of non-recurring items. As a result, the profits reported by the companies of the AGR-30 remain above our expectations, driven primarily by three key sectors:
- The Mining sector delivered a “surprising” positive net income , driven by strong volume growth, favorable price levels, controlled cash costs, and the partial absorption of depreciation;
- The Building Materials sector, primarily driven by SGTM and TGCC, which have demonstrated their ability to outperform their business plans published during their latest operations on the market;
- The Cement sector reported cumulative profits of MAD 3.6 Bn, compared to an initial forecast of MAD 3.1 Bn. This outperformance was mainly driven by Ciments du Maroc, whose results included non-recurring items.
The strongest earnings momentum for listed compagnies since 2021…
- Based on our analysis of listed companies’ FY 2025 results, we identify the following key trends:
- Driven by the Mining and Building Materials sectors, the market’s aggregate revenues posted a +10.2% increase. This growth is 2.0x higher than the average recorded over the 2023–2024 period (Cf. Listed Companies Results Q4- 25);
- Benefiting from a disinflationary environment and tighter control over operating expenses, listed companies’ EBIT jumped by +15.0%. As a result, the operating margin improved by 1.1 points, rising from 23.9% in 2024 to 25.0% in 2025;
- On a recurring basis (excluding exceptional revenues related to the unbundling agreement between Maroc Telecom and Wana Corporate), the market’s earnings power reached +21.4%. This marks the highest level since 2021, the year of the strong post-COVID-19 recovery. This performance was primarily driven by record results of the mining companies. Excluding this sector, the market’s earnings growth settled at +15.0%;
- Reported aggregate earnings (as published by listed companies) exceed MAD 52 Bn, posting a +38.2% increase. This growth was supported by the Telecoms and Mining sectors;
- On a recurring basis, 2025 earnings of listed companies of the AGR-30 came in above our forecasts, reaching MAD 44 Bn versus an AGR estimate of MAD 41 Bn. This implies an achievement rate of 107%, reflecting an achieved earnings growth of +21.6% compared with an AGR estimate of +12.4%.
