T2S IPO: Why subscribe to the offering?

T2S Group Holding, a leading integrated MedTech operator in Morocco, is launching its IPO on the Casablanca Stock Exchange through a global offering of MAD 1.1 billion, at a subscription price of MAD 223 per share. Based on our analysis and taking into account the identified potential risks, we recommend subscribing to this offering.

Specifically, our recommendation is based on the following key points:

  1. T2S Group benefits from a strong positioning across the MedTech value chain. Backed by its market expertise, its top-tier exclusive partnerships (BioMérieux, Accuray, GE HealthCare, Boston Scientific…) and its flagship radiopharmaceutical production unit, T2S captures the bulk of the technological medical care value chain;
  2. A growth story driven by the Kingdom's "Healthcare Vision". Indeed, Management aims to double its revenue by 2030E, crossing the MAD 4.0 Bn mark. This represents an AAGR of +18.8% over the 2025-2030E period, supported by the GST reform and the effects of the compulsory health insurance “AMO” roll-out. These two levers should further stimulate both public and private Demand within Morocco's healthcare sector;
  3. A Business Plan offering two upsides not priced into the IPO price. These consist of the expansion of the product portfolio through new distribution agreements and/or external growth transactions. In our view, this capital raise on the stock market could act as an accelerating factor for the operator's development;
  4. Valuation multiples deemed "fair" over a medium-term horizon. This translates into an average P/E of 13.7x over the 2026E-2030E period, consistent with T2S's growth profile and size. We have retained the average P/E over the forecast period in our analysis in order to account for Business Plan execution risks;
  5. Two risk factors to monitor. On one hand, a stock market environment characterized by both elevated risk aversion among investors and a visible weakening of institutional buyers' appetite for equities. On the other hand, the lack of visibility on the exit terms of the Trone fund on the market could impact the stock's performance over the medium term.

T2S’s key growth drivers

A. "One Stop Shop" model capturing the bulk of the medical technology value chain

With a solid experience in the MedTech sector, T2S Group is a recognized operator in the production of radiopharmaceutical products, the installation and distribution of equipment, medical solutions and services with a strong technological component. The operator's offering targets healthcare professionals in both Morocco and Sub-Saharan Africa. Backed by more than 8,000 references and 1,500 clients, the Group operates through 7 integrated business lines: RADONCO (radiology & oncology), ORAS (operating rooms), Medical Devices, IVD (in vitro diagnostics), Pharma (radiopharmaceuticals), Digital Systems and After-Sales Service.

Three key observations support the operator's positioning:

  • Exclusive, longstanding Tier 1 distribution agreements : These cover numerous medical specialties with a technological component (GE HealthCare, BioMérieux, Accuray, BrainLab, LivaNova, Boston Scientific…);
  • Local industrial integration : T2S is one of the few private players in the local production of PET radiotracers for oncology, with capacity set to double starting 2028E;
  • A significant share of recurring revenue in the total turnover : Recurring revenue reached 46% in 2025 and remains supported by a captive installed base and high value-added post-warranty maintenance contracts.

B. A "growth" stock with the objective of doubling revenue by 2030E

Based on the pre-money Business Plan provided by Management, consolidated revenue is expected to show an AAGR of +18.8% over 2025-2030E to reach MAD 4,168 Mn, against a rate of +13.3% during 2023-2025. This scenario is based on the following assumptions:

  1. Strengthening of the operator's positioning driven by the momentum in the private healthcare sector and the GST reform. This new trend will help strengthen the medical care offering in Morocco through the expansion of the healthcare network and improved quality of services provided;
  2. Development of new complementary product and service ranges supported by a captive installed base;
  3. Gradual consolidation of international presence to support the long-term development of the healthcare sector in Africa.

T2S : An IPO size of MAD 1.1 Bn

With a total amount of MAD 1.1 Bn, T2S Group Holding's IPO will be carried out through a capital increase of MAD 350 Mn and a share disposal of MAD 750 Mn, executed through the exit of the Trone Investment Holdings fund. Both transactions involve a total of 4,932,734 shares at a unit price of MAD 223.

A second directed capital increase reserved for T2S's CEO/Founder will be carried out post-IPO for an amount of MAD 143 Mn at a unit price of MAD 178, representing a 20% discount to the IPO price. Thus, post-IPO and directed , the company's free float stands at 21.8%, while the Trone fund will hold 40.6%, of which 12.5% is subject to a 3-year lock-up under the GAS members' commitment, excluding granted exemptions.

This IPO offers two tranches to different investor categories. The first covers an amount of MAD 700 Mn allocated on a pro-rata basis, with a minimum subscription set at MAD 3.0 Mn, equivalent to 13,452 shares. The second tranche covers an offering of MAD 400 Mn with no minimum requirement, featuring a first allocation of 100 shares per subscriber and a second allocation on a pro-rata basis for Demand exceeding the initial 100 shares.

T2S IPO: Facing a less supportive market environment

This new IPO takes place in a less favorable stock market environment, following a year 2025 marked by strong appetite for new paper as evidenced by the record 170,000 subscribers for the . In 2026, the MASI index has yet to recover from the losses incurred in Q1, posting a YTD underperformance of -4.7%. In our view, two main reasons account for this situation :

  • The escalation of military tensions in the Middle East, in a context marked by the growing weight of retail investors in the market structure, reaching 23% in Q1 2026 against an average of 12% over the 2019-2023 period. This situation has amplified the overall risk aversion within the stock market;
  • The weakening of institutional investors' buying appetite for equities in favor of REITs. This asset class offers attractive long-term returns of around 6.0%. Under these conditions, profit-taking by retail investors may be accompanied by significant .

T2S: Healthcare reforms in Morocco are supporting growth

A. The AMO roll-out: A structural driver of Demand addressed to T2S

The healthcare sector is generating strong investor interest, underpinned by the Kingdom's ambitious vision in this area. The roll-out of (AMO) is set to bring about a new Demand dynamic. The medical coverage rate of the population would have already reached 88% in 2025, according to 2026 FA projections, against 57% in 2019 and 70% in 2024.

The AMO roll-out has driven a sharp increase in the number of medical coverage beneficiaries, rising from 8.6 Mn in 2021 to 32.6 Mn in 2025, of which nearly 11 Mn are covered under the AMO-Tadamon scheme alone, designed for vulnerable populations. This rapid expansion of coverage is mechanically shifting part of healthcare Demand towards the private sector, which is increasingly solicited by AMO policyholders.

In this favorable context, T2S Management forecasts a target AAGR by 2030E of +13% for the "medical equipment" market and +10% for the "medical devices" and "IVD" (In Vitro Diagnostics) markets.

B. The GST reform under the "Vision 2030" framework, the primary catalyst for public procurement

Following the "Health Plan 2025", focused on expanding access to healthcare with a budget of MAD 24 Bn, the State has initiated a structural reform of the national health system by 2030E. This is built around 4 pillars:

(1) Governance, through the creation of the High Health Authority and the Territorial Health Groupings, (2) Human resources development, with a target of 45 healthcare professionals per 10,000 inhabitants , (3) Healthcare supply upgrading, through new university hospital centers (CHUs) in Agadir, Laâyoune, Errachidia, Beni Mellal..., and (4) Digitalization.

The GST reform, which aims to decentralize investment decisions and procurement to the regional level, is set to be the primary accelerator of the hospital equipment market in Morocco, through the opening of new facilities in underserved regions and the renewal of the existing hospital infrastructure. In this context, the healthcare budget has more than doubled since 2020, reaching MAD 42.4 Bn in 2026E, while the healthcare supply has expanded by 122 facilities and nearly 13,000 beds over the 2020-2025 period, mainly driven by private investment. This lever represents a significant portion of T2S's client base, accounting for 70% of Morocco revenue.

T2S IPO: Growth supported by strong fundamentals

T2S's growth strategy relies on a relatively sustained investment effort of over MAD 300 Mn over the 2026E-2030E period. This aims to strengthen its existing activities, develop new complementary product lines and capture international opportunities, with the objective of preserving an upward earnings trajectory over the medium term.

Leveraging its positioning within Morocco's , T2S stands to benefit from government policies aimed at improving medical supply, rehabilitating existing infrastructure and accelerating the pace of hospital center openings. In this context, the operator plans to double its PET radiotracer production capacity through a new cyclotron production unit in Fez by 2028E, following the acquisition of the full capital of Cyclopharma in 2026, while improving its after-sales service with an AAGR of over +23.0% over the period under review.

Analyzing the valuation multiples implied by the forecast Business Plan disclosed by T2S Management, we note the following trends:

  • A fair average P/E of 13.7x over the 2026E-2030E period, consistent with T2S's growth profile and size. We retain the average P/E over the forecast period in order to account for Business Plan execution risks;
  • A dividend upside from 2029E onwards, once the growth cycle is largely complete, with a target dividend yield superior to 5.0%.
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