BCP with a confirmed upward earnings trajectory in 2025
The BCP Group's performance for 2025 is in line with our initial forecasts (see Banking Sector Report - February 2026). From a fundamental perspective, the stock is significantly undervalued on the stock market, with a P/E ratio 2026E which deviates from the sector's normative levels, at 9.3x versus 13.9x(1). Therefore, we maintain our BUY recommendation on BCP shares with a target price of MAD 391, offering an upside of +62%.
The key takeaways from BCP's 2025 achievements are as follows :
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The Net Banking Income (NBI) grew by +5.4% to MAD 26,985 Mn, in line with our forecast of MAD 27,151 Mn (+6.0%). The Interest income explains nearly 2/3 of the NBI increase, with an appreciation of +6.3%. This evolution was driven by the loan growth momentum(2) , which increased by +4.0% to MAD 298.8 Bn, fueled by equipment loans in Morocco(3) (+22.2%). In addition, the cost of funding decreased thanks to the strengthening of free-interest deposits(3) within the deposit structure (79.2% versus 77.8% in 2024). The Fees income increased by +5.1% to MAD 4,384 Mn, compared to an AGR estimate of MAD 4,276 Mn, while the Income from Market Activities & Other(4) rose by +3.5% to MAD 7,058 Mn, compared to an AGR forecast of MAD 7,718 Mn.
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The Cost-to-Income ratio (C/I) decreased slightly by -0.5 pts to 44.6%, compared to a forecast of 43.9%. This was primarily due to the ability of the NBI to outperform the increase of operating costs, which rose by +5.4% against +4.2% respectively.
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The Cost of risk (CoR) came out better than expected at MAD 5,363 Mn, decreasing by -13.5% against an estimate of +8.7% (MAD 5,659 Mn). The CoR rate(5) thus stands at 163 BPS in 2025 after 194 BPS in 2024, thanks to significant recovery and restructuring efforts both in Morocco and in certain subsidiaries in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Income before tax amounted to MAD 9,559 Mn, in line with our forecast of MAD 9,630 Mn. NIGS reached MAD 4,503 Mn (+8.4%), below our forecast of MAD 5,002 Mn (+20.4%) due to a higher-than-expected corporate income tax effect (41.2% versus 37.8%).
