Research & Analysis

During our survey conducted in December, we identified investors' expectations regarding the evolution of the Moroccan central bank key rate during its 4th and last monetary policy meeting in 2022.

The USD/MAD pair fell for the 5th consecutive week by -0.07% to 10.55 this week. This is above a than 3-month low.

USD/MAD fell for the 4th consecutive week by -1.08% to 10.56 this week, at a 3 month low. This is due to a negative basket effect of -0.72% following the correction of the Dollar and a liquidity effect of -0.36% in favor of the MAD.

On the macro-economic level, the 3rd quarter of 2022 was marked by the persistence of inflationary tensions in Morocco with an average level of 8.0%, the downward revision of GDP growth forecasts to 0.8% for the year 2022 and the raising by Bank Al-Maghrib of its Key Rate by 50 PBS to 2.0%.

The MAD continues to appreciate against the US dollar for the second week in a row. USD/MAD stands at 10.72, down -0.31% in one week.

The dollar is back below MAD 11 this week, with an evolution of -2.44%. Originally, a basket effect favorable to the MAD of -2.67%. The liquidity effect came out at +0.23%, detrimental to the MAD.

The dollar is back above 11 MAD this week, appreciating by +1.03%. This is due to a double basket/liquidity effect unfavorable to the MAD, i.e. +0.86% and +0.17% respectively.

In a tense international context, marked by continued inflationary pressures and the downward revision of economic growth forecasts, we are witnessing a significant deterioration in investor confidence toward the Equity market.

The USD/MAD pair is depreciating to 10.91 this week, posting a significant decline of -1.07%. While the liquidity effect was almost neutral during this period, most of the change in the MAD is explained by a basket effect of -1.16%.