Insights

Following our analysis of CDM's achievements at the end of September 2024, we have revisedupwards our forecasts for 2024E-2026E, compared to those communicated by Management inthe SPO last November.

In a resilient macroeconomic context, listed banks in Morocco confirm their solid growth profile, going from an AAGR of their Net Banking Income of 3.7% during the pre-Covid period(1) to 7.5% over 2023-2026E.

Our valuation of Marsa Maroc is conducted within a favorable environment, where the Kingdom aspires to become a global logistics hub for Africa. A credible vision which is supported by Tanger Med II's new position as the 1st port in Europe and Africa in terms of operational efficiency in 2023. 

Our interest in CIMAR Group comes in an opportune sectoral context, marked by the favorable expected recovery of cement consumption in Morocco and the recent announcement related to the acquisition of the cement manufacturer Asment de Témara by the listed operator.

Following the acquisition of Crédit Du Maroc by Holmarcom Group in 2022, from Crédit Agricole France, the new main Shareholder is launching a Secondary Public Offering of 11.3% of the capital.

For the H1-24, listed companies have published positive operational and financial results. This is reflected through a 56% achievement rate( of profits in H1-24, compared to our initial forecasts re-garding the AGR-30 stock universe.

The confirmation by the Court of Appeal of the fine worth MAD 6.4 Bn payable to Wana Corporate, then the disbursement of this amount by Maroc Telecom, constitute, in our opinion, the end of a long regulatory episode which weighed on the stock’s performance.

During our recent survey, we identified investors' expectations regarding the evolution of the Moroc-can Central Bank Key rate during its 3rd monetary policy meeting scheduled for September 24th, 2024.

After an almost two-year lull, Sub-Saharan African issuers are clawing their way back in international markets. In fact, with a few exceptions, African countries were largely excluded from the international Eurobonds market.