Trends and forecasts in Morocco’s foreign exchange market
Global context marked by persistent uncertainty
Trade tensions between the United States and its main partners, particularly China and the European Union, continue to cast a shadow over the global economic outlook. Ongoing tariff disputes, unpredictable policy announcements, and the possibility of further protectionist measures are weighing on investor confidence. This challenging backdrop fuels concerns about slower global growth and contributes to heightened volatility in major currencies.
Against this uncertain landscape, market participants are exercising greater caution. Analysts expect such instability to persist in the short term and recommend hedging foreign exchange exposures over horizons of one to three months in order to mitigate risks linked to sudden market swings.
USD/MAD: fourth consecutive weekly decline
During the week of June 9–13, 2025, the USD/MAD pair depreciated by -0.30% to 9.13, marking its lowest level since late 2021. This movement was largely driven by a negative basket effect of -0.66%, reflecting the U.S. dollar’s depreciation against the euro. In parallel, a positive liquidity effect of +0.36% emerged following tighter liquidity conditions for the Moroccan dirham.
Liquidity spreads widened by 35 basis points to -4.47%. Despite this increase, these spreads remain at their lowest levels in more than three years, supported by reduced import flows resulting from lower energy prices.
EUR/USD: strong appreciation on inflation data
The euro strengthened sharply against the U.S. dollar this week, gaining +1.33% from 1.1397 to 1.1549. In the United States, inflation stood at 2.4% in May, below the consensus forecast of 2.5%, largely due to lower energy prices. This softer reading reinforced market expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, with the most likely scenario pointing to a cumulative -50 basis points cut to the Fed Funds rate by the end of 2025.
In the euro area, inflation eased to 1.9% in May, undershooting the European Central Bank’s 2% target. In response, the ECB lowered its deposit facility rate by -25 basis points to 2.00% in June, signaling the probable end of a one-year monetary easing cycle. While markets anticipate a pause in July, a final rate cut remains possible in December as the ECB shifts its focus toward supporting economic growth amid trade-related headwinds.
Short-term forecasts for USD/MAD and EUR/MAD
Based on the EUR/USD outlook and prevailing liquidity conditions, short-term forecasts for the USD/MAD pair have been revised slightly downwards. Target levels now stand at 9.12 for the one-, two-, and three-month horizons, compared to a current spot rate of 9.13.
For the EUR/MAD pair, the projected levels are 10.50 across the same horizons, against a spot rate of 10.53.
Medium-term outlook
Broker consensus points to a stabilization of the EUR/USD exchange rate around 1.15 in the third quarter of 2025, followed by a gradual appreciation to 1.17 by the second quarter of 2026. Over the longer term, the pair is expected to hover near 1.18 in 2026 and 1.19 in 2027, before a modest pullback to 1.17 by 2029.
