International highlights
The Dollar Penalized by a Context of Uncertainty
The EUR/USD pair appreciated by +0.24% this week, reaching 1.1812. The U.S. Dollar remained under pressure in a context marked by geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions. On the one hand, the rise in tensions between the United States and Iran has revived concerns about potential economic disruptions and reinforced investor caution. On the other hand, the decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to invalidate certain tariffs has maintained uncertainty surrounding trade policy. Moreover, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January came in at +0.5%, above expectations of +0.3%, without providing support for the USD. In this environment, markets continue to anticipate two Fed rate cuts in 2026, of –25 BPS each.
MAD evolution and foreign exchange market liquidity indicators
Basket effect favorable to the Dirham this week
The USD/MAD pair depreciated by -0.15%, moving from 9.17 to 9.16 this week. This move is mainly explained by a favorable basket effect for the MAD of -0.21%, linked to the decline of the Dollar on the international market. The liquidity effect, for its part, came in positive at +0.06%, reflecting a slight tightening of liquidity conditions in the interbank foreign exchange market. In this context, liquidity spreads narrowed by +6.2 BPS, reaching -2.78% this week, while remaining in negative territory.
Volatility indicators
Rising Trade and Geopolitical Tensions
Uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and the renewed escalation of military tensions between the United States and Iran is fueling investor caution. Moreover, tensions in the oil market are reviving concerns about the global economic outlook. In this context of heightened volatility, we recommend that operators hedge their transactions over horizons ranging from 1 to 3 months.
EUR/USD outlook– BLOOMBERG
Brokers’ forecasts for the EUR/USD pair were generally revised this week. The exchange rate is expected to hover around 1.19 in Q2-26, before reaching 1.20 in Q3-26, compared with 1.19 a week earlier. It is then expected to remain around this level in Q4-26. In Q1-27, the pair is projected at 1.22, before easing to 1.21 later in 2027. Over the 2028–2029 horizon, the target now stands at 1.22 for 2028 and 1.24 for 2029, compared with 1.23 and 1.25 respectively last week.
The decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to cancel certain tariffs introduced by the U.S. administration has revived questions about the direction of U.S. trade policy, particularly as President Donald Trump indicated his intention to pursue his tariff program in a more targeted manner. On the domestic front, initial weekly jobless claims came in at 212K, compared with 208K a week earlier. Meanwhile, the January Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by +0.5%, above the +0.3% forecast. In this context of persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, markets continue to anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, of –25 BPS each, with the first cut expected in July, followed by a second in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In the Eurozone, annual CPI came in line with expectations at 1.7%, confirming contained inflation dynamics. Markets therefore continue to anticipate a monetary policy status quo from the ECB in 2026, according to the ECB Watch tool.
Upward revision of our forecasts at the 1-month 2-month and 3-month horizons
Considering the EUR/USD forecasts and the liquidity conditions in the foreign exchange market, we have revised our projections upward for the USD/MAD pair over the 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month horizons.
Brokers’ expectations for EUR/USD point to a slight appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar over a 3-month horizon, compared with current spot levels.
Dirham liquidity spreads, for their part, are expected to narrow gradually over the 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month horizons, relative to current levels.
Under these conditions, the target levels for the USD/MAD pair stand at:
- 9,24 at 1 month
- 9,26 at 2 months
- 9,29 at 3 months
compared to a spot rate of 9.16
The target levels for the EUR/MAD pair stand at:
- 10,89 at 1 month
- 10,90 at 2 months
- 11,02 at 3 months
against a spot level of 10.81.
