Understanding the decline of the MASI amid heightened uncertainty

The first half of 2026 was marked by a worrying escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe. This situation triggered an energy shock, thereby reviving inflationary risks. At the domestic level, macroeconomic indicators remain resilient, with a projected GDP growth of +4.4% and inflation contained below 1.0% for 2026E.

Since the start of period in September, the MASI fell by -9.4%, deepening its year-to-date underperformance to -10.4%(1). The financial results’ quality of listed companies thus appears insufficient to sustain an underlying upward trend in stock prices. In our view, several factors lie behind this situation:

  • As previously outlined in our report published in March 2026, the Moroccan stock market has undergone a structural shift regarding volatility. This tends to amplify the impact of exogenous shocks, driven by two factors: on the one hand, the growing weight of individual investors, whose investment horizon generally remains short-term. On the other, the weakening "buying" position of institutional investors, who appear to be increasingly gravitating toward fixed-income alternative investments amidst rising bond yields;
  • Rising market expectations regarding the growth of listed companies. Indeed, after experiencing earnings growth close to +15.0% over the 2022–2025 period, a +6.0% increase in 2026 (excluding the mining sector) could "disappoint" investors who have become more demanding;
  • The persistence of the global energy shock appears to be influencing the risk aversion of . They seem to be factoring in extreme scenarios, namely: (1) expectations of a resurgence in imported inflation and its impact on corporate margins and local Demand; (2) the upward shift in the yield curve, which represents the primary competitor to equities in Morocco; and finally, (3) a second downward revision of economic growth by BAM in September, following the one made in June 2026.

EXPERT OPINION

Given high investor expectations, we believe that the performance of listed companies will not be sufficient to trigger a robust stock market recovery during Q4-26. Consequently, our scenario projects the MASI index to remain in negative territory for the full year 2026.

Specifically, the MASI’s trajectory will depend primarily on the evolution of geopolitical tensions and the intensity of their impact on energy prices. Against this backdrop, we are closely monitoring the international landscape to identify early signs of a potential trend reversal.

We recommend that investors adopt a selective approach while extending their investment horizon to at least two years. The aim is to bolster portfolio resilience by focusing on three undervalued sectors: Banking, Healthcare, and Ports.

MASI decline: overall solid half-year results

During the first half of 2026, listed companies operated in a less favorable environment characterized by escalating and rising international energy prices. Nevertheless, the domestic economic context continues to demonstrate resilience. The half-year results for listed companies are as follows:

  • Revenue growth for listed companies reached +10.3%, the highest level since the first half of 2022. Excluding the exceptional performance of mining companies (+145%), the increase in revenue stands at +6.1% only;
  • The recurring EBIT of the stock market settles at MAD 51.6 Bn in H1-26, showing an increase of +17.7% year-on-year. The operating margin jumped from 24.8% in H1-25 to 26.5% in H1-26, i.e. an improvement of +1.7 points. This profitability gain comes mainly from the positive contribution of the mining sector, whose margin levels have more than doubled, rising from 20.8% to 42.3% over the same period;
  • The recurring earnings growth (restated for the one-off revenue of under the agreement signed with Wana Corporate) amounts to +20.8% in H1-26 after +14.1% in H1-25. This growth is to be put into perspective given the superprofits of the mining companies. Excluding this sector, the market’s recurring profits show a clear deceleration to +6.0% against +14.0% in H1-25.

The majority of listed companies reported higher profits

At the end of the first half of 2026, we note the following observations:

  • 51 listed companies, representing 86% of the market’s capitalization, show an increase in their profits;
  • 25 issuers record a decline in their mid-term profits, i.e. 14% of the overall capitalization of the market;
  • 8 listed companies published loss-making results;
  • Finally, 2 companies published a Profit Warning announcing a significant decline in their results. These are Promopharm and Involys.

Earnings growth driven by the Mining and Banking sectors

Between H1-25 and H1-26, the aggregate earnings of the market rose by MAD +5.1 Bn, of which MAD +3.6 Bn generated by the mining sector. The sector analysis brings out the following observations:

  • The mining sector is the main contributor to the increase in the market’s profits, through an aggregate NIGS up MAD +3,646 Mn, i.e. 72% of the variation in the overall earnings;
  • The banking sector comes in 2nd position with a contribution of MAD +835 Mn. Despite a modest increase in NBI (+1.3%), benefited from a net improvement in their cost of risk, i.e. -34.7%;
  • The cement sector records an underperformance of MAD -161 Mn despite the improvement of +7.6% in its revenue. This is attributed to the rise in input costs. Cimar was also penalized by the increase in financial expenses and the non-recurrence of a capital gain on disposal in H1-25.

In the first half of 2026, the recurring profits of the market recorded an increase of +20.8%. In more detail, the sector variations break down as follows:

  • 12 sectors concentrating 83% of the capitalization, experienced an increase in their net income. These are Mines (+648%), IT (+139%), Retail (+37.3%), Real Estate (+14.2%), Ports (+12.5%), Building Materials (+11.9%), Industry & Services (+11.7%), Telecoms (+8.1%), Financing (+7.9%), Banks (+6.7%), Healthcare (+6.4%) and Insurance (+3.4%);
  • 4 sectors representing 17% of the total capitalization, saw their profits decline in H1-26, such as Agri-busines(-18.0%), Cement (-10.6%), Automotive (-7.8%) and Energy (-1.1%).
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