Analysis of Sonatel’s 2025 results
Since our recommendation of July 7th 2025, Sonatel’s share price has surged by +14% to FCFA 29,000. This represents an achievement rate of 87% of our target price.
The Group’s 2025 results confirm our initial growth scenario as well as our target price of FCFA 33,490. Overall, we maintain our BUY recommendation on Sonatel, with an additional upside potential of +15.5% in 2026.
Growth driven by Mobile Data
In 2025, Sonatel’s consolidated revenue increased by +8.3% to FCFA 1,923 Bn, almost in line with our initial forecast of FCFA 1,936 Bn (+9.0%). This growth was driven by the Mobile Data segment, whose revenue surged by +17.7%, accounting for nearly 80% of the increase in consolidated revenue. With a combined contribution of 18.0% to total revenue, the Fixed Broadband and Orange Money segments continued their growth momentum, recording respective increases of +22.5% and +11.3%.
Adjusted EBITDA reached FCFA 923 Bn (+8.5%), in line with our forecast of FCFA 916 Bn. Thanks to effective control of operating expenses, whose growth remained below that of revenue, the EBITDA margin stood at 48.0%, a profitability level 3 pts higher than the average observed over the 2020-2024 period (45.0%).
Rising profits and an increased dividend
For the FY 2025, Sonatel’s NIGS rose by +4.0% to FCFA 342 Bn. This level is slightly below our estimates of FCFA 360 Bn (+9.5%). This gap is explained by a higher-than-expected increase in the tax expense, which jumped by +16%.
The operator continues to maintain an upward dividend trajectory, with the 2025 DPS increasing by +5.1% to FCFA 1,933. As a result, the stock offers an attractive D/Y of 7.4%, which is 210 BPS higher than the yield of the BRVM (5.3%).
