Listed companies: two-speed growth in Q1 2026

Listed companies operated in a broadly less favorable first quarter of 2026. The period was marked by: an feeding volatility in energy input prices, disruptions to port logistics supply chains and exceptional weather conditions impacting the activity of several listed sectors.

The key takeaways from listed companies' quarterly publications are as follows:

  • After recording the strongest quarterly revenue growth since Q2-22, at +12.2% in Q4-25 (a high in the last 14 quarters), the stock market shows a slowdown in Q1-26 with a revenue growth of +6.8% below the average of +8.5% observed over the last 4 quarters;
  • The exceptional performance of Mining companies (+133%; MAD +3.7 Bn) masks a sharper deceleration in the market’s revenue growth. Excluding this sector, revenue growth stood at only +2.6%;
  • The Banking sector contributed negatively to the market’s revenue growth for the first time since Q2-21. Historically the primary driver of the market’s growth, the sector posted a technical decline in its net banking income of MAD -1.1 Bn. This decrease was driven by the expected contraction in market activities income following the upward reversal in the bond market during this quarter;
  • The market’s results in Q1-26 are consistent with our growth scenario published at the start of the year. This scenario anticipates a super-profit from mining companies, driving listed earnings growth to +10.2% for the FY 2026;
  • A review of listed companies' releases reveals a degree of optimism among the Top Management, who expect a relatively stronger performance in the second quarter. This is due to improving weather conditions, a gradual recovery in logistics flows and the acceleration of various investment projects tied to the organization of the 2030 World Cup.

A quarterly growth concealing significant sectoral disparities

In Q1-26, listed companies operated in a less favorable environment marked by: the escalation of military tensions in the Middle East, exceptional rainfall impacting delivery timelines across certain sectors, supply chain disruptions and rising energy input costs. After reaching a high of +12.2% in Q4-25, the market’s revenue growth decelerated to +6.8% in Q1-26 below the quarterly average of +8.5% recorded in 2025.

In more detail, this growth figure conceals significant sectoral disparities, as illustrated in the chart below:

  • The Mining sector is the top contributor to the market’s revenue growth for the second consecutive quarter, with an increase of MAD +3.7 Bn driven by Managem (MAD +3.4 Bn). benefits from a positive dual Price/Volume effect. Excluding the mining sector, the stock market’s revenue growth settled at only +2.6%;
  • For the 1st time since Q2-21, the Banking sector recorded a decrease in its quarterly NBI, i.e. MAD -1.1 Bn. This finds origin in interest rates increase which triggered a technical contraction in market activities income of listed banks of -59.4% (MAD -2.8 Bn).

Based on their market capitalization, listed sectors recorded the following revenue trends:

  • 11 listed sectors, representing approximately 55% of the overall market capitalization, recorded an increase in activity levels at the end of March 2026, namely: Mining (+133%), Insurance (+26.5%), Automotive (+19.6%), Healthcare (+17.7%), Retail (+15.9%), IT (+14.8%), Ports (+12,1%), Industries & Services (+9.8%), Financing (+7.8%), Telecoms (+5.0%) and Building Materials (+2.3%); 
  • 5 listed sectors accounting for over 45% of the market capitalization posted declines in their consolidated revenues: Real Estate (-4.1%), Banks (-4.4%), Energy (-6.9%), Agri-Business (-7.8%) and Cement (-11.6%).

Mining performance masks a marked slowdown in the market’s revenue growth

To illustrate the growing contribution of the mining sector to the market’s consolidated revenue growth over the 2020-2026 period, we have charted the quarterly trend in aggregate revenue for listed companies, restating the mining sector over the same period. Two broad trends emerge from this exercise:

  • Q1-20 to Q3-25: Mining sector performance had no significant impact on the market's revenue growth profile. The growth differential between the "market" and the "market excluding mining companies" was limited to an average of 20 BPS;
  • Starting from Q4-25: The mining sector's contribution to market revenue growth has become increasingly visible, accounting for more than half of overall revenue growth. The growth differential between the two market segments averages 450 BPS over the period under review. Finally, the exceptional performance of the mining sector appears to be masking a fairly severe deceleration in the market’s revenue growth.

This new growth configuration supports our growth forecasts communicated at the start of the year (Cf. AGR-30 Fore casts 2025-2026). These anticipate super-profits from the mining sector in 2026, driving annual earnings growth for the AGR-30 to +10.2%.

Towards a recovery of listed companies in the second quarter of 2026

A review of the various releases published by listed companies at the end of May 2026 shows a broadly optimistic tone from the Top-Management regarding the second quarter of 2026. The Management are indeed expecting a recovery in activity relative to the first quarter.

Despite the persistence of geopolitical tensions and their impacts on supply chains and input costs, the following arguments are put forward in the press releases:

  • Improving weather conditions enabling a pickup in construction site activity;
  • The acceleration of infrastructure projects ahead of the critical 2030 World Cup deadline;
  • The gradual normalization of logistics supply chains.
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