Côte d'Ivoire : Facing the test of falling commodity prices

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The resilience of the Ivorian economy would likely be put to the test with the scenario of expected sharp correction in commodity prices. In fact, according to the 2025 Finance Act forecasts, the average price of Cocoa expressed in FCFA should fall by -25.8%, Cotton by -8.5%, Coffee by -2.4% and finally Oil by -10.5%. Through this report, we analyze the impacts of the scenario of falling prices on both economic growth and public finances. This is an opportunity to assess the diversification level of the Ivorian economy, to identify new growth drivers and to examine the degree of flexibility of public finances in this perspective.

In terms of growth, Côte d'Ivoire should pursue with a GDP growth rate of around 6%. The Secondary sector would represent the growth driver through the implementation of major projects in the areas of Infrastructure and Energy.

In addition, the Central Administration is working to raise its revenues, while rationing the increase in expenditure. Without confiscating the growth rate, the challenge is to sustainably redress the fis-cal deficit to make it compliant, starting 2025, with the WAEMU community standard.

Finally, the new tax provisions of this edition confirm the Central Administration's aim to increase the level of State revenues by broadening the taxpayer base, tightening the control system, and also increasing tax rates for some lucrative sectors.

 

Read more.