Insights

Fed Rate Cut Expectations revised down The EUR/USD pair depreciated by -0.33% this week to 1.0328.

Key rate: ECB reduces its deposit facility rate to 2.75% The EUR/USD pair depreciated by -1.29% this week to 1.0362.

Following our analysis of CDM's achievements at the end of September 2024, we have revisedupwards our forecasts for 2024E-2026E, compared to those communicated by Management inthe SPO last November.

In a resilient macroeconomic context, listed banks in Morocco confirm their solid growth profile, going from an AAGR of their Net Banking Income of 3.7% during the pre-Covid period(1) to 7.5% over 2023-2026E.

Uncertainties over Trump's tariff measuresThe EUR/USD pair appreciated by +2.18% this week to 1.0497 from a more than 2 years low.

The EUR/USD pair appreciated by +0.28% this week to 1.0273, a low of more than 2 years. The consumer price index in the United States rose to 2.9% in December after 2.7% in November.

The resilience of the Ivorian economy would likely be put to the test with the scenario of expected sharp correction in commodity prices. In fact, according to the 2025 Finance Act forecasts, the average price of Cocoa expressed in FCFA should fall by -25.8%, Cotton by -8.5%, Coffee by -2.4% and finally Oil by -10.5%.

The USD/MAD pair depreciated this week by -0.29% from 10.10 to 10.07.This evolution is explained by a negative market effect.This comes out at -0.36% in favor of the Dirham. The basket effect, for its part, comes out slightly positive at +0.07% as the Dollar strengthens internationally.

By approaching 20% of GDP in 2025E, tax revenues have reached historically high levels and should stabilize at least until 2027E, according to projections by the Ministry of Finance(1).