Financial performance of listed companies

The second quarter of 2025 was marked by a favorable economic context in Morocco. On the one hand, GDP confirmed its acceleration to +4.6% in Q2-25 and recent forecasts for 2025 remain positive at +4.6%. On the other hand, inflation is under control around 1.0% at the end of June 2025.

In August, 68 listed companies released their achievements for the second quarter and the first half of 2025. The main takeaways are:

  • In Q2-25, we noted a continued deceleration in the recurring growth of the market’s revenue, falling from +10.2% in Q4-24 to +7.7% in Q1-25 and then to 5.4%(1) in Q2-25. A logical trend due to an increasingly high comparable base of results and a normalization of the banking sector’s growth, considered as the "growth driver" of ;
  • This slowdown in growth in Q2-25 is not fully reflected in half-year results. Indeed, listed companies’ revenue growth in H1-25 reached +7.5%, its highest level in the last three years. The sectors which significantly outperformed the average market’s growth were: Healthcare (+67.3%), Building Materials (+26.0%) and Automotive (+20.6%);
  • The real estate sector’s revenue declined by -6.3% at the end of June 2025. This was due to Addoha's revenue which dropped by -23.2%, following the change in sales accounting rules which came into effect at the beginning of 2025. Excluding this impact, the sector's revenue would have increased by +11.2% in H1-25. Given this growth rate, the question of the sustainability of the real estate sector's valuation levels should return to the forefront in 2025. This is especially true given that the sector is trading at a P/E 25E of 43.9x;
  • The banking sector's mid-term performance confirms our growth scenario for 2025. This represents an annual growth in NBI and NIGS of +7.2% and +12.2% respectively. Under these conditions, would display the most resilient growth profile on the market, combined with attractive valuation multiples, i.e. a P/E 25E of 15.2x.

Slowdown in revenue growth during Q2-25

After a +10.2% recovery in Q4-24 followed by a +7.7% increase in Q1-25, the market’s revenue growth decelerated to +5.4% in Q2-25 on a comparable basis (excluding the impact of the TGCC acquisition). As reported, the market’s aggregate revenue stood at MAD 84.2 Bn Vs. MAD 78.9 Bn in Q2-24, representing an increase of +6.7%. In more detail:

  • The Building Materials sector ranked first with an increase in its reported revenue of MAD 1,551 Mn. This sector alone accounts for nearly a third of the market’s revenue growth. This is attributed to , whose reported revenue(1) jumped by MAD 1,047 Mn (+50.4%), following the completion of the acquisition of a 60% stake in STAM ;
  • The Banking sector posted a deceleration in its consolidated NBI growth to MAD 1,176 Mn (+5.0%), after increases of MAD 2,352 Mn (+10.7%) and MAD 3,062 Mn (+15.3%) during the previous two quarters;
  • In the opposite, the Energy sector’s revenue declined by MAD 729 Mn (-8.0%), followed by the Mining sector, whose revenue fell by MAD 337 Mn (-11.5%). This was due to the decline in international oil prices and the decrease in Managem's Gold production in Guinea.

Banks: achievements which support our 2025E growth scenario

In our last report on listed banks in Morocco, disclosed in July, we revised upwards our forecasts of the consolidated NBI growth of the seven listed banks for 2025E, from +5.6% initially to +7.2%. Thus, the sector's achievements during H1 2025 are reassuring in comparison with our growth scenario. In more detail, we note the following observations:

  • Listed banks posted consolidated NBI of MAD 49.2 Bn at the end of June 2025, compared to MAD 45.7 Bn in H1-24, representing an increase of +7.7%;
  • The NBI achievement rate at the end of this first half stands at 50%, compared to the annual forecast for the sector of MAD 98.2 Bn in 2025E.

The AGR forecasts

The AGR forecasts for the banking sector's key financial indicators in 2025E are as follows:

  • The cost/income ratio is expected to reach 41.6% in 2025E, down -1.2 points compared to 2024. This is primarily due to a more sustained improvement in NBI compared to expenses;
  • The cost of risk would increase by a limited amount, i.e. +0.7%, given the expected improvement in the economic context in Morocco, Egypt, and Cameroon;
  • The NIGS is expected to jump by +12.2%, from MAD 19,291 Mn in 2024 to MAD 21,648 Mn in 2025E. This should benefit from the combined effect of NBI growth and the tight control of expenses and the cost of risk.
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