Overview of October 2025 findings – AGR Confidence Index

In October 2025, the AGR Confidence Index stands at 61.6 pts, down -1.5 pts compared to the previous edition. This decline is driven by a change in foreign investors’ perception. Nevertheless, our index remains at the middle level of the Assurance phase for more than 2 years. Overall, the investors’ perception towards the stock market over the next 3 months, still remain “serene”.

Morocco : AGR Confidence Index Vs. Masi index since september 2011

An analysis of results by investor category reveals a significant decline in the score related to foreign investors. In contrast, the scores of local investors, who represent 89% of the market, show generally positive changes. In more details:

  • The Index related to foreign investors stood at 47.5 pts, down -17.9 pts compared to the previous edition. It should be noted that the score of this category has moved from the “Assurance” phase to the “wait-and see” phase;
  • The index related to “domestic UCITS and institutional” investors settled at 61.5 pts, stable compared to October 2024;
  • The index related to “Reference Actors” stands at 67.2 pts, up+3.5 pts compared to the previous edition;
  • Finally, the individual investors’ index posted a pronounced increase of +4.3 pts at 68.4 pts.

AGR Confidence Index : Investors' perception for the next 3 months

  • 57.0% of investors surveyed forecast an increase of over the next three months against only 74.0% in the previous edition ;
  • 38.0% of investors anticipate an improvement in traded volumes on the stock market over the next 3 months, against
    62.0% previously.
  • 29.0% of investors surveyed are willing to allocate a part of their “cash” to the stock market against only 59.0% previously. Furthermore, the share of investors wishing to concentrate mainly on Equities over the next 3 months rose from 26.0% to 43.0% over the same period;
  • 63.0% of investors anticipate a “good quality” of FY 2025 achievements of compared to 65.0% in the
    previous edition.
  • 80.0% of individuals surveyed are confident towards the evolution of the general economic climate over the next three months, against only 82.0% in the previous edition;
  • 43.0% of individuals surveyed believe that the socio-political context would not have a favorable impact on the
    during the next three months compared to 6.0% previously.
  • 40.0% of investors surveyed believe that the geopolitical context will have a negative impact on the Equity market over the next three months compared to 62.0% previously;
  • 43.0% of individuals surveyed believed that the international context will have no impact on the stock market during the next three months compared to 41.0% in the previous edition.

Presentation of the AGR Confidence Index

AGR financial investor confidence index, developed by Attijari Global Research, evaluates the future perception of inves-tors toward the : Morocco, Tunisia, WEMUA, CEMAC and Egypt. This index has a psychological dimension since it ensures the measurement and the monitoring of investors confidence level, supported by a quarterly survey.

Reading and interpretation of the results

AGR Confidence Index is a summary of opinions and evolutions of the feelings of financial investors different profiles. These variations should be seen neither as a sign of recovery / decline of financial markets, nor the economy, but as an improvement or a deterioration in investors’ confidence level in the future. Technically, the index evolves in a closed interval from 0 to 100 points. This interval is subdivided into four zones, each reflecting a different feeling. The evolution of the index allows, on one hand, to point out investors’ confidence level with respect to different phases, and on the other hand, to assess its evolution over time.

How is the AGR Confidence Index calculated?

The computation of AGR financial investor confidence index is based on responses from a survey sent to the most repre-sentative actors of the financial market. The proposed responses to surveyed individuals are divided into five choices ranging from "very pessimistic" to "very optimistic". The questions asked are divided into five main categories, namely: Equity Market, Economy, Politics, Geopolitics and International.

Our investors sample includes a minimum of 35 participants, representing four major categories: (1) Institutional/UCITS, (2) Reference Actors, (3) Private Individuals and (4) Foreign investors. Each category has a different weighting depending on several criteria: its intervention level, influence on the market and our own assessment. The category of "Reference Actors" includes investors with a deep knowledge of the equity market allowing them to transcribe faithfully investors sentiment.

In the case of Morocco, the weightings used to compute the financial investor confidence index are as follows:

  • Institutional & UCITS: 50%
  • Reference actors: 20%
  • Foreigners: 15%
  • Individuals: 15%
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